"Three Hundred Years of British Prime Ministers" A talk by Sir Anthony Seldon, 19 November 2021

 Like the convent girls in Yeats’s Among School Children the too, too solid flesh of the assembled, socially distanced Lit. Soc.  in momentary wonder stared upon a sixty-year-old public man, Sir Anthony Seldon, whose pandemically postponed tryst with the Society finally played out in the spacious surroundings of the New Hall.  His remit was to share his insights from his most recent work, The Impossible Office–The History of the British Prime Minister, published on the tercentenary of the office’s institution.

Our speaker began by reading out a charge sheet, in peerless, prosecutorial prose, against an anonymous British Prime Minister.  The topical resonance of these charges saw knowing glances exchanged among the audience and a tacit consensus emerged by telepathy that the lonely figure in the dock was Britain’s 55^th Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.  The complacent cognoscenti were startled by the revelation that the accused was our first Premier, Sir Robert Walpole; gratifying reassurance for Winchelsea’s ever-irrepressible band of traditionalists (motto; plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose).  Employing an engaging, front foot style of peripatetic pedagogy, which leant heavily on sustained Socratic dialogue, Seldon listed the questions he was proposing to answer on the Impossible Office: - Why was the post created?  Why had it survived particularly given the synchronous existence, in Britain’s case, of the monarchy?  Why had it proved a model for so many different countries?     

In the pre-Walpole era, powerful statesmen were no novelty but men like Thomas Wolsey, Thomas Cromwell and the Cecils (father and son) derived their power from the monarch and some duly discovered it could be arbitrarily removed.  The republican interlude which saw the apotheosis of the New Model Army and rule by the military outfitters, Cromwell and Son, remains unique in British political history.  Seldon considered that the Glorious Revolution of 1688 ultimately facilitated the advent of the Prime Ministerial office as the subsequent constitutional monarchs needed a trusty in Parliament to arrange the funding of the Royal Household.  Disaster is often the harbinger of major political change and Walpole’s ascent to the Premiership came in response to the financial crash which followed the bursting of the 18^th century speculative extravaganza that was the South Sea Bubble.  

Although the title Prime Minister only appeared in the 1850s and then as a sarcastic barb,  Walpole under the aegis of First Lord of the Treasury started to accumulate leadership powers – in National Finance, in Parliament and in Government. Other now familiar additions to Walpole’s work in progress followed; the Cabinet, political parties and the management of the nation’s defences.    Sir Anthony adduced several reasons for the continued survival of the office – successfully avoiding invasion, revolution, civil war and a major military defeat.  Constitutionally, being a unitary state rather than a federal one and the lack of a written constitution and an elected head of state also contributed to the longevity of the role.  To assuage any impatience among potential pub political pundits our visitor revealed his lists of achievement and failure.  The top tier of Agenda Changers read: -

1)      Walpole

2)      Pitt the Younger

3)      Robert Peel

4)      Palmerston

5)      Gladstone

6)      Lloyd George

7)      Churchill

8)      Attlee

9)      Thatcher 

Sir Antony emphasised the importance of the Max Factor i.e., political longevity in gaining access to this tier.  The second tier, close but no cigar, comprised: -

1)      Pitt the Elder (Chatham) 

2)      Lord Liverpool

3)      Earl Grey

4)      Disraeli

5)      Asquith

6)      Baldwin

7)      Macmillan

8)      Wilson

9)      Heath

10)    Blair?  

The audience was on tenterhooks for the Duds, who were

1)      Grenville

2)      Melbourne

3)      Aberdeen

4)      Rosebery     

Bonar Law, on whose funeral arrangements Asquith had approvingly commented how fitting it was that the Unknown Prime Minister should be buried alongside the Unknown Soldier, managed to evade capture by Seldon.  Consolation prizes for noble failure were awarded to Neville Chamberlain and Theresa May.  Able to draw on a professional lifetime’s immersion in high politics, Sir Anthony was prepared to divulge the ingredients for his recipe for a successful Premiership: -   

1)      Have a clear agenda

2)      A strong economy

3)      Moral seriousness

4)      An iron will

5)      Be beyond party

6)      High work rate

7)      Even temper

8)      Be a good manager 

9)      Enjoy good luck 

10)  Have good timing 

Some recommendations for improved performance by future incumbents included trust people more, rein in the Treasury and employ more professional, diverse and challenging advisers.  In a lively Q&A, Sir Anthony confidently fielded the host of questions rained on him by his enthusiastic hearers who clearly reciprocated his declared reverence for famously encephalised Winchelsea audiences.   

William Doherty